Could The Triumph Of Electric Cars Come As Soon As 2023?

Could The Triumph Of Electric Cars Come As Soon As 2023?


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Posted on EVANNEX on October 22, 2021 by Charles Morris

When will the killer app for electric vehicles appear? When will we reach the tipping point? When will the famous S-curve of new-technology adoption turn sharply upward? The oil companies, and the legacy automakers and politicians that follow their lead, tell us that that fateful day lies decades in the future. We EVangelists tend to envision a shorter timeline. 

James Morris, writing in Forbes, surmises that the ICE vehicle’s loved ones may start making arrangements with hospice as soon as 2023.

Of course, the demise of the dinosaur-burner will happen on different timelines in different markets. In Norway, it’s plain that the tipping point has already been passed. In July, electrified vehicles (EVs, plug-in hybrids, hybrids) accounted for more than 90% of new car sales, and the Norwegian Automobile Federation predicts that sales of gas cars could dwindle to almost zero by April 2022 (via Electrek).

Other European countries are also seeing dramatic growth in sales of EVs, even as overall auto sales have declined. In the UK, according to Morris, battery-electric vehicle sales reached 15.2% of the market in September, and 9.5% for the year to date. In that month, Tesla’s Model 3 was the best-selling car of any kind in the UK, outselling the second-place model, the budget-priced Vauxhall Corsa, by over 30%. Morris also reports that most TV ads for cars now feature electric models—that’s a tipping point that we certainly haven’t reached here in the US.

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